Mexico Open Betting Tips & Results

Betting Tips for 28th April to 1st May 2022

When Cameron Smith won the Players Championship it felt like the golf season proper had begun. An incredible double at the WGC Matchplay and the Masters for Scottie Scheffler kept the momentum going but there is no doubt it’s been checked a little of late with a drop in the calibre of the golf.

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans isn’t everybody’s cup of tea and this week’s tournament, the Mexico Open, features an incredibly weak field by the standards of the PGA Tour. That said, world number two Jon Rahm tops the billing and the betting, so it isn’t exactly going to be easy for anyone to win. However, by and large the big names have stayed away from Vidanta Vallarta and Rahm is rightly a warm favourite here as he tries to keep pace with the red-hot Scheffler at the top of the rankings.

Disappointing as the field may be for the tournament organisers, these sort of events always provide an opportunity for the less-heralded players on the PGA Tour. Victory in Mexico’s national open provides 500 FedEx points, a very tidy sum of $1.3 million and a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour. It could be a very big week for somebody in Vallarta. It could also be a big week for punters on the lookout for betting value.

There is a chance that some players who would otherwise fancy a crack at this historic tournament were put off by the course. The Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta could be a bit of a brute this week with plenty of wind in the forecast. Like many Greg Norman designs, the Signature Course puts a premium on accuracy from tee to green. Water hazards and bunkers are plentiful while the presence of five par threes only adds to the feeling that ball striking and shot making will be the key skills required.

Rahm is going to get plenty of support from punters who expect him to bulldoze a field of this calibre. Rahm is a player who comes alive on the biggest stage though and whilst he is a worthy favourite, there is nothing at all to like about his price of 5/1. Instead, the pick from the top of the market should be Chris Kirk. The American has been playing some very good golf of late and should find the Signature Course is to his liking. Kirk’s shot making should see him do well relative to the field in the worst of the wind while his rock-solid short game will bail him out of trouble more often than not so back him each way at the huge price of 33/1.

Aaron Rai earned his place on the European Tour thanks to his performances on the Challenge Tour. Similarly, he earned his PGA Tour card for this season with a very good second place finish in the Albertsons Boise Open, part of the Korn Ferry Tour Finals last season. He’s not found the going easy on the PGA Tour but there’s been a lot to like including a sixth place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. Form at Torrey Pines could well hold up well at Vidanta Vallarta so Rai can outperform his odds of 55/1.

Anirban Lahiri arrived at the Players Championship in a frankly awful run of form. He’s no stranger to having to scrap for everything he can on the PGA Tour since basing himself in America though and the Indian star showed he has what it takes to compete at this level at a course that suits his game. With previous good form at windy venues near the coast, Lahiri should be feeling confident about his chances of a big week against the odds once again. 70/1 is a very good price about Lahiri’s chances and he is another to add to your each way slips.

Past Winners

Year Course Winner
2022 Vidanta Vallarta Jon Rahm

2022: Jon Rahm

Short odds favourites are not everybody’s cup of tea in any sport and that is probably even more the case in golf, with events typically having fields of around 150. Winning a professional event takes a relentless amount of world class golf and more than a little bit of luck along the way, so there wasn’t much to excite punters about Jon Rahm going off as a 5/1 favourite for the Mexico Open. Apart, of course, from the fact that he has been the best golfer in the world for the vast majority of the last 12 months and the field was, by the high standards of the PGA Tour, relatively weak.

Rahm has had the odd wobble in recent months with his game falling slightly below his extremely impressive levels. He must have, therefore, been concerned about the standard of his play – particularly his putting – when looking to close out the 54 hole lead. Rahm is a tremendous fighter as well as a generational talent though and he was up to the challenge, eventually winning the Mexico Open by one shot from Brandon Wu.

“Stressful” was the word Rahm used to describe his win during his post-round media obligations. Blissful was a more accurate description of the photos that accompanied his win though as he celebrated the win with his pregnant wife Kelly and his young son Kepa. This was Rahm’s first win of the 2021/22 season and his first victory where he led at the end of every round, which augurs well for the big tournaments to come. The PGA Championship starts on the 19th May, with the US Open following less than a month later, so now is a great time for the Spaniard to be rediscovering his best golf.